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New - 15 Mins Ago
Nashville Housing in Q3:
The Real Story for Fall 2025
Rates are near 6%, prices are steady, and the market's more balanced than headlines admit.
Let's be honest. The Nashville housing market isn't crashing. It's not roaring either. It's settling into a new normal—steady, selective, and realistic. The frenzy of 2021 is gone, and the pros are adapting.
The short version? The market isn't crashing, and it's not overheating either. It's stabilizing — and that's a good thing.
Where Mortgage Rates Really Are (As of Nov 4)
Ignore the "rates are 7%!" headlines. They're not.
Here's what lenders are quoting today:
30-YEAR CONVENTIONAL
≈ 6.33%
15-YEAR FIXED
≈ 5.80%
30-YEAR FHA
≈ 6.05%
30-YEAR VA
≈ 6.06%
7/6 SOFR ARM
≈ 5.95%
These are national averages — real numbers, not promo rates or "with points" gimmicks.
The reason they're still in the mid-6s: the Fed doesn't actually set mortgage rates. They influence short-term borrowing, but long-term mortgage rates follow the bond market. When Jerome Powell talks about "sticky inflation," bond investors get skittish and demand a higher return — which pushes mortgage rates up.
Bottom line: economists expect the mid-6s range to stick through 2026 unless the broader economy slows.
But qualified FHA and VA buyers are still landing under 6% with no points, which is why purchase activity hasn't disappeared.
The Middle Tennessee Market by the Numbers (Last 30 Days)
Fresh from Realtracs — Davidson, Williamson, Rutherford, Wilson, Sumner, and Robertson tell a clear story: stable prices, steady contracts, and buyers who are choosy but serious.
| County | New Listings | Closings | Median Price | Avg DOM | Supply | Quick Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davidson | 1,179 | 671 | $525,675 | 38 | 5.3 | Balanced. Plenty of inventory; buyers negotiating above $700K. |
| Williamson | 552 | 406 | $1.08M | 34 | 3.9 | Premium market still moving when priced right. |
| Rutherford | 565 | 371 | $450K | 34 | 4.1 | Healthy balance; new construction keeps pricing in check. |
| Wilson | 442 | 209 | $530K | 30 | 4.8 | Steady demand under $600K in Mt. Juliet. |
| Robertson | 205 | 102 | $370K | 27 | 4.3 | Affordable segment moving fastest in region. |
| Sumner (update) | 445 | — | $490–500K | ≈ 32 | ≈ 4.5 | Listings down 23%, pendings up 5% — buyers still engaged. |
Regional pulse:
- Median home price ≈ $520K (essentially flat YoY)
- Average list-to-close ≈ 100 days
- Supply ≈ 4–5 months — a true neutral market
- Contracts still rising (+6% month over month)
How Buyers and Sellers Are Behaving
Buyers are rational, not rushed.
They're watching budgets closely and walking from deals that don't feel right. Only ≈ 12% of Tennessee homes see multiple offers, and about 16% of accepted contracts fall apart — usually over inspections or appraisals. That's not drama; that's discipline.
Sellers are re-learning reality.
Overpricing is still the #1 deal-killer. Lowering to market value isn't "losing money"; it's just stopping wishful thinking. Appraisers have their hands back on the wheel, so 2021 comps no longer set the bar.
The Nashville "Purple Pill" — How to Actually Get to Closing
In The Matrix, you take the red pill or the blue pill.
In 2025 Middle Tennessee real estate, you need both.
Red Pill:
Drop the price if it's wrong. If showings are slow after two weeks, the market's already spoken.
Blue Pill:
Offer help — closing cost credit, repair allowance, or rate buy-down.
That combo (price + concessions) is how Williamson, Rutherford, Wilson, and Davidson deals are still closing every day.
Refuse both pills ("I won't drop price or offer anything") and expect to sit.
County Highlights
Davidson County:
Steady demand around $500K; upper tiers negotiable but not tanking. Supply ≈ 5.3 months.
Williamson County:
Luxury holds firm when homes are show-ready and priced for today's buyer. 3.9 months of supply = mild seller edge.
Rutherford County:
Still the most balanced county in Middle TN. Resales and new builds both moving at a steady clip.
Wilson County:
Mt. Juliet continues to draw steady traffic under $600K; Lebanon buyers are more rate-sensitive.
Sumner County:
New listings down 23%, pendings up 5%, and inventory flat — a sign of quiet strength. Turnkey homes in Hendersonville and Gallatin still catch quick offers.
The Big Truth
This isn't a bad market — it's a professional one.
2021 was chaos; this is competence. Buyers have time to think, and sellers have to earn attention.
That's not a crash. That's normal.
Nashville remains on solid ground: job growth, migration, and housing demand still outperform national averages. That's why prices are holding instead of sliding.
Bottom Line
Middle Tennessee real estate is calm, not cold.
Sellers who adjust are still winning. Buyers who act thoughtfully are finding opportunities.
And for everyone else — this is the reset we needed after three wild years.
If you'd like a real read on your specific neighborhood or ZIP, let us know. We'll tell you exactly what's selling — and what's not — right now.
